What does a hot start really mean for a player? It's a question that gets asked every April in baseball clubhouses and fan forums alike. We all know the old saying: "You can't win the division in April, but you can lose it." While the origin of that quote might be lost to history, its truth is backed by plenty of evidence. Last season, nine of the twelve eventual playoff teams were already in a playoff spot by the end of April. The year before? The exact same ratio. A fast start gives a team breathing room for the inevitable injuries and slumps that come with a 162-game marathon.

For players, the stakes are similar but more personal. If you're on the outside looking in after the first month, the odds are stacked against you climbing back. Sure, there are exceptions—like the 2024 Astros, who had the second-worst record in April only to finish 78-54 and win their division. But that's the exception that proves the rule.

So, what about individual players? Their stats can fluctuate even more wildly than a team's. We decided to look at how much a hot start actually matters for a player's season. Since there's no "playoff" equivalent for individual performance, we focused on players who posted an above-average OPS in the first month and tracked how they finished the year. (We'll leave the pitchers for another week—teasing out the noise from relievers and starters is a whole different challenge.)

For reference, the league average OPS in the first month of last season was .700. That's the baseline. Which Diamondbacks players jumped out of the gate hot, and did they maintain that pace? That's what we're here to find out.