The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery with everything on the line—and according to analyst Jeff O'Neill, a win would be nothing short of "massive" for the franchise.

After a season that unraveled in spectacular fashion, Toronto finished 32-36-14, snapping a nine-year playoff streak and sinking to the bottom of the Atlantic Division. It was a far cry from the high expectations that kicked off the 2025-26 campaign.

Now, all eyes turn to the lottery on May 5. The Leafs hold an 8.5 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 41.9 percent chance of keeping their first-round selection. But there's a catch: the pick is top-five protected due to a previous trade with the Boston Bruins. If it falls outside that range, it heads to Boston—raising the stakes even higher.

A favorable outcome could bring in elite prospects like Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, players who could instantly reshape the team's future. Speaking on TSN, O'Neill didn't mince words about what a lottery win would mean.

"It's very simple," O'Neill said. "Don't come at me, all of Canada. Toronto Maple Leafs drive the bus as far as interest in the country. You see it everywhere they travel. It would be massive. You'd also like to see another team get it."

While O'Neill acknowledged other contenders like the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks, he emphasized that Toronto's market impact is unmatched. For a franchise that drives hockey conversation across Canada, a lottery win could reignite a fan base hungry for hope.

So, how did the Leafs get here? It was a perfect storm of misfortune. Injuries played a devastating role, especially to captain Auston Matthews, who suffered a season-ending MCL tear in March. Defensive depth crumbled when Chris Tanev was limited to just 11 games, and goaltending instability forced inexperienced players into the spotlight.

The offseason trade of Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights left a glaring hole in scoring depth. Toronto's attack became predictable, while the defense allowed 299 goals—among the worst in the league. Management changes followed, with Brad Treliving dismissed late in the season, and the team closed the year on a seven-game losing streak that underscored the scale of the decline.

For a franchise searching for direction, the lottery could be the turning point. A win wouldn't just bring a top prospect—it could signal the start of a new chapter for the Leafs and their passionate fan base.