The New York Mets keep saying they'll turn things around. They keep insisting their players will eventually perform like the stars they've been in the past. They keep trusting the numbers on the back of those baseball cards.

But night after night, the story stays the same—and it keeps getting worse.

After another brutal loss, the Mets landed in Anaheim on Thursday night. Manager Carlos Mendoza is still at the helm as the team begins a critical three-city road trip through Anaheim, Denver, and Phoenix. This stretch could be Mendoza's last stand, though it's hard to say for sure. President of baseball operations David Stearns doesn't seem eager to fire his manager.

Here's the thing about midseason firings: they rarely spark the kind of turnaround fans dream about. A new manager would inherit the exact same roster—the same struggling offense, a pitching staff with only a few reliable arms, a defense that can barely turn a double play, and an injured list packed with All-Stars.

FanGraphs looked at the numbers to see how often in-season managerial changes actually lead to success. The answer? Not very often.

Since 2004, managers fired during the season had a winning percentage of .414 at the time of their dismissal. Their replacements posted a .467 winning percentage after taking over. While some of those teams were already headed for a tough season, the new skippers actually won 1.5 fewer games than expected overall.

Sure, there are exceptions. In 2022, the Philadelphia Phillies fired Joe Girardi and brought in Rob Thomson—one of Mendoza's mentors. Thomson led the team to a 65-46 record and a trip to the World Series. In 2015, the Milwaukee Brewers replaced Ron Roenicke with Craig Counsell after just 25 games. Counsell, now with the Chicago Cubs, guided the Brewers to a 61-76 finish and an NL Wild Card berth. And the Colorado Rockies surged after firing Clint Hurdle, going 74-42 under Jim Tracy to reach their second straight Wild Card game.

But those are the exceptions, not the rule. Firing Mendoza right now might just be making a change for the sake of making one—and that rarely fixes what's really broken.