As the Arizona Diamondbacks push past the quarter mark of the 2025 season, the small-sample-size excuses are fading fast. Now is the perfect time to look at which players are most likely to see their numbers swing back toward the mean—for better or worse. Regression isn't just a buzzword; it's a fundamental part of baseball's ebb and flow. Let's dive into the Diamondbacks' roster and see who might be due for a correction.

First up is Ketel Marte, the heart and soul of this franchise since Paul Goldschmidt's departure in 2018. Through his 12th big league season, Marte has been the steady hand in the desert—but this year has been anything but steady. His slash line sits at a troubling .215/.271/.367, his home run rate has been cut in half from last season, and his strikeout rate has jumped three percentage points. If these numbers held, it would be the worst campaign of his career. But don't sound the alarm just yet. Beneath the surface, there are promising signs. Marte leads the team in the gap between his expected and actual batting average, and his expected slugging is significantly higher than what he's produced. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a miserable .236—far below his career norms. That's a strong indicator that better days are ahead. When the baseball gods start to smile on him again, we could see a major rebound from the unofficial team captain.