The Atlanta Falcons have some serious star power, but according to a new roster projection model from The Athletic, the team still has a long way to go before it's considered a true contender. As the 2026 season approaches, the model ranks the Falcons at No. 23 overall—a far cry from the top-tier rosters of the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, who sit at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

So, what's holding Atlanta back? It's a tale of two sides of the ball. On offense, the Falcons boast one of the most exciting young trios in the league: tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London, and running back Bijan Robinson. That's a TE-WR-RB combination that can strike fear into any defense. The interior of the offensive line also grades out as quality, giving the offense a solid foundation.

But the cracks start to show at the most important position on the field. The quarterback situation remains entirely unsettled. Tua Tagovailoa has been in the league long enough that defenses have figured him out, leaving the team to hope that Michael Penix Jr. can step up in his third year. As The Athletic's model puts it bluntly: "That's scary." Until one of these signal-callers proves they can consistently lead the offense, the Falcons are unlikely to climb in any power rankings.

Defensively, the story is mixed. The secondary is in good shape, with both cornerbacks and safeties grading out as above average. That's a bright spot for a team that needs all the help it can get. However, the front seven is a major concern. Outside of star edge rusher James Pearce Jr., there's precious little athleticism or depth to speak of. And even Pearce's availability is uncertain—he faces potential off-field issues that could lead to a significant suspension, regardless of any legal outcomes.

Credit where it's due: defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich worked miracles last season, squeezing out as much pressure as he did with such a thin rotation. But relying on coaching magic every week isn't a sustainable blueprint for success.

For Falcons fans, the path forward is clear but challenging. The roster has elite pieces at the skill positions and a respectable offensive line, but it's lacking at quarterback and in the front seven. Until those holes are filled, Atlanta will remain a team with potential—but not yet a contender.