As the Houston Rockets continue to build their young core, all eyes are on Amen Thompson this offseason. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft is entering a pivotal moment in his career—his first chance at a rookie extension. With elite athleticism and tantalizing two-way potential, Thompson has quickly become one of the most exciting pieces in Houston's puzzle. But as the front office weighs his value, a key question lingers: how much should they offer a player whose shooting remains a work in progress?

To get a sense of what's coming, it helps to look at how general manager Rafael Stone has handled similar situations in the past. Last summer, the Rockets locked up Jabari Smith Jr. with a five-year, $122 million extension—roughly $24.4 million per season. That deal places Smith in solid company, alongside players like Nic Claxton, Naz Reid, and wings such as Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges. For a versatile defender and developing scorer, it's a fair contract that reflects his current role and potential.

That approach stands in stark contrast to the deal Jalen Green signed just before the 2024 season. After drawn-out negotiations that stretched until October, Green inked a three-year contract worth over $36 million annually. While that's the kind of money you'd expect for a second overall pick, it also carried some risk—risk that Houston happily sidestepped when Green was eventually traded for Kevin Durant. Timing and leverage clearly matter in these negotiations.

Then there's Alperen Şengün, who signed a five-year, $185 million extension on the same day as Green's deal. At $37 million per season, that raised eyebrows at first. But back-to-back All-Star appearances have quieted the skeptics. Şengün's salary now sits just above Rudy Gobert's and in the same neighborhood as Zion Williamson's $39 million—proof that the Rockets are willing to pay big when the production matches the price tag.

So where does that leave Amen Thompson? He's not the shooter Green is, nor the established star Şengün has become. But his defensive versatility and explosive playmaking are rare commodities. Houston must decide whether to bet on his ceiling or anchor his value to his current weaknesses. Either way, this summer's decision will shape the Rockets' financial flexibility and their identity for years to come.