When the Minnesota Timberwolves tip off their Western Conference semifinal series against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, they'll once again be cast in a familiar role: the underdog. But even by their standards, the odds are staggering.
According to some sportsbooks, Minnesota is an 11-1 longshot to reach its third straight conference finals. Meanwhile, the Spurs are nearly even money to sweep the Wolves outright. For Game 1 in Texas, Minnesota enters as a 13.5-point underdog. The message from oddsmakers is clear: this isn't expected to be close.
But if there's one thing the Timberwolves have proven over the years, it's that they thrive on doubt. Time and again, this squad has silenced critics and advanced past rounds where few gave them a chance. The lack of respect from sportsbooks and national media is nothing new—and it often fuels their fire.
The series schedule is set: Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. Monday in San Antonio on NBCSN and Peacock, while Game 4 takes place at 6:30 p.m. Sunday, May 10 in Minneapolis on NBC and Peacock. Minnesota actually won two of their three regular-season meetings, though Spurs superstar center Victor Wembanyama missed one of those victories.
The last time these teams met was Jan. 17, a three-point Spurs win that featured a classic duel. Anthony Edwards poured in 55 points as Minnesota erased a 25-point halftime deficit, only to be denied by Wembanyama's 39-point masterpiece. Notably, Rudy Gobert missed that game for the Wolves.
Injury concerns loom large for Minnesota. Donte DiVincenzo is out for the season, and Edwards, though seen doing shooting work at Saturday's practice, remains week-to-week and will miss at least the first two games of this series. Guard Ayo Dosunmu is day-to-day with calf soreness, with Timberwolves coach Chris Finch noting he only participated in light portions of Saturday's session. San Antonio, meanwhile, enters at full strength.
One of Minnesota's biggest challenges will be finding offense from beyond the arc. The Wolves shot just 33.7% from three-point range in their last series against Denver and failed to reach 30 attempts in any of the final three games. That's partly explained by losing their top two volume shooters—DiVincenzo and Edwards—in the first half of Game 4. But that level of shooting inefficiency simply won't work against the Spurs.
Even more concerning: Minnesota's usual path to points—attacking the rim—will be severely tested. While the Wolves lived in the paint against Denver, that strategy faces a new obstacle in San Antonio. The Spurs' perimeter defense is slightly better than Denver's, but the real game-changer is Wembanyama. Minnesota is going from facing a team with zero rim protection to the NBA's most fearsome shot blocker.
Finch has emphasized that Minnesota must maintain its aggression in attacking off the dribble. The Wolves still need paint touches to break down San Antonio's defense, which ranked No. 3 in the NBA this season. But Finch noted that once they get to the rim, decision-making will be critical. The right play will often be to collapse the Spurs' defense and then kick out for open looks. That means everyone outside of Gobert must be willing and able to knock down those shots.
Can the Timberwolves prove the doubters wrong once again? The stage is set for another chapter in their underdog story.