Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar is off to a blistering start on the mound, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan doesn’t think it’s enough to challenge for the NL Cy Young award this season.
Ohtani has made four starts this season, pitching a total of 24 innings. Only two runs have crossed the plate under his watch this season, one of which went down as unearned, and he has 25 strikeouts during that stretch.
The right-hander currently doesn’t qualify for category leadership due to a lack of innings—24 innings pitched in 28 games—but would lead the National League in ERA and rank second in MLB in the same stat. He doesn’t have enough innings to qualify due to the Dodgers’ unorthodox six-man rotation, and Passan believes that will be his downfall.
“Third behind Skenes and Chase Burns,” Passan said of where Ohtani would place in the NL Cy Young race. “Because he will not throw nearly as many innings as pitchers in five-man rotations, Ohtani is always operating from behind when it comes to winning pitching-only awards. Unless his peripherals are so overwhelmingly better than everyone else’s in the NL, innings pitched should be rewarded for their rarity, and that’s a category in which Ohtani will struggle.”
Ohtani has pitched in seven seasons, eclipsing 100 innings pitched on three occasions—all of which came when he played for the Los Angeles Angels. Of those seasons, only one surpassed 150 innings pitched.
He placed fourth in Cy Young voting that year with some fantastic numbers, posting a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts in just 166 innings.
The three players to finish ahead of him in voting were all-time great Justin Verlander, strikeout machine Dylan Cease and former All-Star Alek Manoah.
Ohtani had great numbers that season, but happened to run into multiple fantastic seasons from some of the game’s best at the time. If things keep going the way they are, he could be in a similar situation in 2026.
The aforementioned Skenes has been a Cy Young-caliber pitcher since his promotion to the bigs in 2024, and this year isn’t any different. After a rough Opening Day outing where his defense cost him several runs and he didn’t make it out of the first inning, Skenes has been nearly perfect with a 0.95 ERA through 28.1 innings pitched.
Chris Sale—who won the Cy Young in 2024—currently tops FanGraphs’ Cy Young projections, and has a 2.31 ERA through 25 innings pitched.
Mason Miller has also made a dark horse case for himself in San Diego, as he’s a perfect 10-for-10 on save opportunities and is yet to allow a run with a 61.4% strikeout rate. He’s the only player in MLB with a negative FIP this season, meaning his defense could be significantly worse and he’d still have a 0.00 ERA.
Ohtani is also shoving on the mound this season, though, and could very well bring home the award for the first time if he an continue posting zeroes and pitch deeper into games.
His next pitching appearance will come against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday at 7:10 p.m. PT.
What do you think Shohei Ohtani’s chances of winning the NL Cy Young is?