The tennis world was rocked this week by news that Carlos Alcaraz will miss the 2026 French Open, throwing the men's singles draw wide open. The two-time defending champion is still recovering from a wrist injury that first flared up during the Barcelona Open, where he was forced to withdraw after his opening match. Since then, the Spanish star hasn't been able to make a full return to competitive play, meaning he won't be on the Court Philippe Chatrier when the tournament kicks off on May 18.
Alcaraz's absence is a massive blow for fans who were hoping to see him chase a third straight title in Paris. His most recent victory came against Jannik Sinner in what many still call one of the greatest finals in Roland Garros history. With the defending champion out, all eyes now turn to Sinner, the world number one, who has been in outstanding form and looks well-positioned for another deep run. But the reshuffled draw has created opportunities for several other ATP stars to step up and make their mark.
If Alcaraz had been available, the top four seeds would have been set in stone: Sinner, Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic. Now, that fourth seed spot is wide open, and the live rankings currently have Ben Shelton holding it. But Shelton has already bowed out of the Italian Open, along with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, who sit sixth and eighth in the live standings. Taylor Fritz also didn't feature in Rome due to injury, which has opened a clear path for Daniil Medvedev to make up ground.
Here's where it gets interesting: if Medvedev can win in Rome, he'll leap ahead of Shelton and claim that coveted fourth seed. The only obstacle? A potential semi-final clash with Jannik Sinner. But clay has never really suited Medvedev's game, and his numbers at Roland Garros tell that story. He's been to three finals at the Australian Open, reached two semi-finals at Wimbledon, and even won the US Open. But his best showing in Paris is a single quarterfinal appearance back in 2021. Across nine trips to the French Open, Medvedev has crashed out in the first round six times—including just last year.
Still, with the draw wide open and the defending champion out, Medvedev suddenly looks like the dark horse of the tournament. For fans and players alike, this year's French Open just got a whole lot more unpredictable.