Few moments in basketball rival the sheer thrill of an NBA draft lottery victory—especially when it comes completely out of left field. For struggling franchises, that lucky bounce of the ping-pong balls can rewrite a team's destiny overnight. Since the lottery system debuted in 1985 (when the New York Knicks landed Patrick Ewing), the odds have shifted multiple times, and future changes may aim to curb tanking. But history is filled with jaw-dropping wins by teams that had no business picking first.
With the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery set for May 10 in Chicago—where top prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson await—14 teams will vie for the No. 1 pick. Here’s a look at the most improbable lottery winners ever, all of whom defied odds of less than 10 percent to strike gold.
1. Golden State Warriors (via trade, 2009)
In a deal involving Penny Hardaway and future picks, the Warriors landed the top selection. They chose Derrick Rose, a Chicago native who became Rookie of the Year in 2009 and NBA MVP in 2011—a true hometown hero story.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (via trade, 2015)
Before his rookie season, this pick was traded for Kevin Love. The Timberwolves selected Karl-Anthony Towns, who earned Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and has since become a cornerstone big man.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (2026)
Shortly after Luka Dončić was sent to L.A. in the Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers won the lottery. They drafted Cooper Flagg, who was named 2026 Rookie of the Year—a swift payoff for a blockbuster deal.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Clippers trade, 2011)
Before the draft, the Clippers traded this pick to Cleveland. The Cavaliers selected Kyrie Irving, who took home Rookie of the Year in 2012 and later won a championship with the team in 2016.
5. Atlanta Hawks (2024)
With less than 3% odds, the Hawks shocked the league by winning the lottery. They drafted Zaccharie Risacher, who earned first-team All-Rookie honors and is now a key contributor in Atlanta's 2026 postseason run.
6. New Jersey Nets (2000)
Kenyon Martin was the top pick, and he delivered four solid seasons for the Nets, earning an All-Star nod in 2004. Though not a superstar, he helped lead the team to back-to-back NBA Finals appearances.
7. Portland Trail Blazers (2007)
The Blazers took Greg Oden one pick before Kevin Durant. Oden played only three NBA seasons due to injuries, a reminder that lottery luck doesn't always guarantee success.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (2019)
Just after trading Anthony Davis to the Lakers, the Pelicans won the lottery and selected Zion Williamson. A two-time All-Star, Williamson has electrified fans but has yet to reach the playoffs—a story still unfolding.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (2005)
With long odds, the Bucks landed Andrew Bogut, the Australian big man who became a defensive anchor. While not a flashy pick, Bogut contributed to Milwaukee's eventual championship culture.
From Derrick Rose's MVP peak to Cooper Flagg's immediate impact, these lottery wins prove that sometimes, the basketball gods smile on the most unlikely of teams. As the 2026 draft approaches, which franchise will add its name to this list of unforgettable surprises?