Outshot By 20? In The NHL Playoffs, That’s Not Always A Problem

3 min read
Outshot By 20? In The NHL Playoffs, That’s Not Always A Problem

Outshot By 20? In The NHL Playoffs, That’s Not Always A Problem

Surprising NHL playoff wins by Montreal and Utah spotlight extreme shot-differential games and what regular-season data says about win probability.

Outshot By 20? In The NHL Playoffs, That’s Not Always A Problem

Surprising NHL playoff wins by Montreal and Utah spotlight extreme shot-differential games and what regular-season data says about win probability.

The NHL playoffs have a way of rewriting the rulebook, and this year, the Montreal Canadiens and Utah Mammoth are proving that sometimes, the scoreboard is all that matters—no matter how lopsided the shot count looks.

When the push notification came in from the Montreal-Tampa Bay Game 7, it looked like a glitch. The Canadiens had beaten the Lightning 2-1 despite being outshot 29-9. Yes, you read that right: just nine shots on goal in an entire playoff game. Montreal went nearly 27 minutes without a single shot, failed to register one in the second period, and still walked away with the win thanks to Alex Newhook's third-period strike. It was the lowest shot total by a winning playoff team since shots on goal became an official statistic back in 1959-60.

If that sounds like a bizarre one-off, think again. Just days earlier, the Utah Mammoth pulled off a similar trick. On April 24, Utah beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2 in Game 3 of their first-round series, despite being outshot by the same 20-shot margin. Karel Vejmelka was a wall in net with 30 saves, while Vegas goalie Carter Hart faced only eight shots. For Utah, it was their first home playoff win in franchise history—and it came in the most unlikely way possible.

Shot differential is one of hockey's most straightforward stats. More shots usually mean more possession, more time in the offensive zone, and more pressure on the opposing goalie. It's a natural indicator of who's controlling the game. But as the Canadiens and Mammoth have shown, it's not the scoreboard. A 20-shot deficit is rare, but in the NHL, it's far from a death sentence. In fact, regular-season data from 2025-26 tells us that while shot differential correlates with winning, it's not nearly as predictive as you might think—especially when a hot goalie or a timely goal flips the script.

For fans and players alike, these games are a reminder that in hockey, the only shot that truly matters is the one that goes in. And in the playoffs, that's the only stat that counts.

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