The stakes couldn't be higher as the Minnesota Timberwolves look to close out the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series on Thursday night. After taking a commanding 3-1 lead, the Timberwolves saw the Nuggets fight back with a 125-113 victory in Game 5, trimming the series to 3-2. Jamal Murray was the star for Denver, dropping 30 points and going a perfect 16-for-16 from the free-throw line. However, Minnesota will have to dig deep without Anthony Edwards, who is sidelined with a knee injury.
Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minnesota, and the Nuggets enter as 5.5-point favorites according to the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under for total points sits at 225.5. With the series on the line, both teams will be looking to impose their will, and the betting market is reflecting just how tight this matchup could be.
For those looking to make informed picks, the SportsLine Projection Model has been on fire. Simulating every NBA game 10,000 times, the model has generated over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. Entering the second full week of the 2026 playoffs, the model is riding a sizzling 25-9 roll (74%) on top-rated spread picks this season.
After running the numbers for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, the model is leaning toward the Under on the 225.5 total. That trend aligns with recent history: the total has gone Under in two of the last three and three of the last five meetings between these two teams. Minnesota has also seen the Under hit in four of its last six games against Denver and in nine of its last 12 home games.
On the player front, the model projects Julius Randle to lead the Timberwolves with 22.7 points, with four other Minnesota players scoring 11.7 or more. For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is expected to pace the offense with 26.4 points, while three other Denver players are projected to hit double figures. In total, the model forecasts a combined score of 214 points, well below the 225.5 line.
Whether you're a die-hard fan or just looking to add some excitement to the game, this series is shaping up to be a classic. Will the Timberwolves hold serve at home and advance, or can the Nuggets force a Game 7? One thing's for sure: every possession will matter.