The NFL Draft is upon us. At this point you've read the mock drafts, you're on top of the rumor mill, you know the big names and you're pumped for the most important event of the NFL offseason in terms of building a Super Bowl champion.
Admit it, too, you're ready to overreact to the top picks and big surprises like you know what the outcome is going to be. But, none of us do. The NFL Draft is as unpredictable as it is important. JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall pick in 2007) had the same number of regular season wins in his career as Tom Brady (No. 199 overall pick in 2000) had Super Bowl wins (seven).
That blows my mind and sums up what we are dealing with here. So I'm here to drop some knowledge and help you navigate it all with 10 rules for the NFL Draft.
When it comes to Les Snead's famous slogan 'F them picks', the Rams are the exception, not the rule. They've made more Super Bowls (two) than first-round picks (one - Jared Verse) since 2017.
They've used their first-round picks to acquire Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, Matthew Stafford and now Trent McDuffie in that span. They also traded second and third-round picks for Von Miller in 2021, another 'F them picks' move that fueled their Super Bowl run.
The Rams have thrived off this strategy (and they've hit home runs later in the draft like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams) but you know the saying, often imitated, never duplicated. It's becoming increasingly popular (there's been three trades featuring a first-round pick for a veteran player this offseason) but in the grand scheme of things it's not the wisest strategy.
Here's a list of all the trades in the last 10 years featuring a first-round pick for a player. I focused on the 23 between 2016-22 as we can't fairly pick a winner for the six trades in the last calendar year. By my count, the team acquiring the picks has a 13-8-2 "record" in these deals.
First-round picks traded for veterans in last 10 years
Trading picks for proven commodities is the sexy (and trendy) move, much like trading up in the draft. After all, who doesn't want to be like the Chiefs and trade up for Patrick Mahomes?
Much like the case study on 'F them picks', though, the value is in the picks (moving down). Teams treat trading up in the draft like a credit card. They will overpay to move up and get "their guy" and pay the bill (and hefty interest rates) at a later date.
GMs are predicting a high volume of trades during this draft per USA TODAY's Jarrett Bell, which means the usual sharks could be smelling blood in the water. Howie Roseman (Eagles GM), Les Snead (Rams GM) and John Schneider (Seahawks GM) have been among the most willing trade partners in the draft.
It feels like Roseman is getting flowers every year for his trades, and perhaps none were better than 2022 when he traded the 16th and 19th picks to the Saints for the 18th pick, a future first, second among other picks. It ultimately netted the Eagles A.J. Brown, Jalen Carter and Cooper DeJean, while New Orleans most notably got Chris Olave.
It's been reported that Brown will not be with the Eagles by the start of the 2026 season. Until that trade comes to fruition I'll be keeping my eye on Roseman wheeling and dealing in the draft, again.
Another candidate for moving back is the Seahawks, who have the fewest picks (four) in the 2026 NFL Draft. Schneider shared at Monday's pre-draft presser that it's no secret Seattle is looking to move back from its first-round pick. Sounds like a hot spot for a trade up for a quarterback like Alabama's Ty Simpson if he's still on the board.
Trading up for a quarterback comes with an even greater premium (virtually every trade up for a quarterback in the common draft has been an overpay by some trade value charts) so any team that can get on the receiving end of one of those deals will be licking its chops.
There's endless information at our fingertips to evaluate prospects. The most talked about metric, 40-yard times, is among the least important. Just look at the top five receiving leaders in the NFL last season. Only Ja'Marr Chase ran a sub-4.40 40 time. Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown were both over 4.50.
So don't concern yourself with Carnell Tate's 4.53 40-yard time at the 2026 combine.
Pro Football Focus recently did a study on wide receiver production by 40-yard dash time and there's almost no correlation between time and NFL production.
The list of fastest 40 times on record at the NFL combine says a lot, too. The only great player on that list is Chris Johnson.
The Raiders will tell you firsthand, 40 times are overrated. They drafted Stanford Routt in 2005 (4.27), Fabian Washington is 2005 (4.29), Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009 (4.30), Jacoby Ford in 2010 (4.28), Demarcus Van Dyke in 2011 (4.28) and Henry Ruggs III in 2020 (4.27). All burners and hardly any NFL production.