Did you know that the NFL draft's actual government name is the Annual Player Selection Meeting?
I wrote last week about the lack of buzz around this NFL APSM, but now that it's here, if you aren't excited then you just don't love ball.
I do one mock draft the entire cycle and it is always published one week early. I would love to re-do some of it but I can't break my oath. So instead I write this column with a collection of draft notes and intel that I've gathered ahead of tonight's first round.
Once the Raiders take Fernando Mendoza, sources believe the Jets will be selecting Texas Tech edge David Bailey at No. 2. The Jets have had numerous touchpoints with Bailey over the months. I know the markets and insiders have fluctuated on whether it's Bailey or Arvell Reese, and Reese certainly made it seem like he could be the pick during his meeting with media Wednesday, but I'm sticking with my Bailey pick. Someone recently raised the point that Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich was Stanford's interim head coach just after Bailey entered the transfer portal, so he has had access to unique insights on him.
If I'm right, then in my view, the draft truly begins at No. 3 with the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals have presented to everyone that they are interested in trading out of No. 3. Finding a trade partner in this draft may be difficult, though. They have also presented as if they are more than comfortable selecting RB Jeremiyah Love if they sit at the pick.
Sources have wondered whether that's the best team-building selection. Love would be guaranteed $50.5 million if taken at No. 3, far more than any other running back in the NFL. Arizona also has a deep running back room led by Tyler Allgeier, who signed a two-year deal with $8 million in guarantees this offseason after splitting time -- and saving his own mileage -- with Bijan Robinson in Atlanta. The team also has James Conner returning after missing most of the season with a foot injury, former third-round pick Trey Benson and Bam Knight on a minimum deal.
That is objectively a lot of resources at a position many consider fungible for a team that won one game the entire autumn and winter. But taking an offensive weapon like Love would send a jolt of energy through the fan base and would certainly aid in jersey and ticket sales.
"Love could go to Arizona if they are looking for ticket sales and that's driven by ownership as a sexy pick," said one NFC team exec.
On the other side of the coin, an agent laid out the reasoning for adding Love if you're the Cardinals. His pass-catching ability can make the numbers on the field work in your favor.
"He can line up in the slot and run the entire route tree," the agent said. "You can then justify it because you have a dual receiver and running back. They'll never admit that because they don't want to pay him as a receiver later. That's how you justify it."
Tennessee's selection is obviously dependent on what the Cardinals do. For weeks I thought the Titans would eschew a running back in favor of a defensive player for head coach Robert Saleh. I am not as convinced today.
If GM Mike Borgonzi feels Love can make life easier for Cam Ward in Year 2, I think he doesn't care too much about the guaranteed money going to a running back. Freaky Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles cannot be ruled out here, of course.
In my mock I had the Giants taking Love at No. 5 and Caleb Downs at No. 10. I think it's reasonable to assume they will leave this draft with two of Reese, Love, Downs, Sonny Styles, Francis Mauigoa and Jordyn Tyson. This is obviously going to depend on how the board falls. But I went offense-defense for the Giants in my mock, and I think they get players on both sides of the ball by the end of the night.
The more I talk to folks and the closer it gets to the draft, the more it seems Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson will be the first receiver selected tonight. Sources at multiple teams have told me he's the most talented receiver in the draft. The knock on him has been his injury history. He tore multiple ligaments in his knee in 2022 and has battled various injuries since then.
One exec whose team had medical concerns about Tyson early in April no longer has those concerns today.
There has been plenty of scuttle about teams who could make moves up in the top-half of the draft like the Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints and Rams. One that hasn't been discussed much is the Detroit Lions.
The Lions, per sources, have sniffed around moving up from 17th. Some sources have found it hard to believe GM Brad Holmes would make such a move in this draft because the Lions only have pick No. 50 before selecting again in the middle of the fourth round, and teams are behaving as though 2027 picks are untouchable.
If the Lions do make a big move up, the belief is it would be for an offensive tackle. Holmes made his mark in the 2023 draft when he showed his unafraid to go against the grain (running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell in the first round). Making a significant move up in this year's draft is something I wouldn't put past him.
Reflecting on my mock, if I could have one thing back, it would be that I would have the Vikings trade out of No. 18. I didn't love sending the second safety to a team in the teens as they passed up the best tight end in the draft. I admit the Vikings could take Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq over Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. But if I had another crack at this and the board fell exactly the same way in the previous 17 picks, I would probably have the Vikings trading the 18th pick to someone looking to come up for Sadiq.