NBA’s new proposed lottery system actually makes things worse and doesn’t fix tanking

3 min read
NBA’s new proposed lottery system actually makes things worse and doesn’t fix tanking

NBA’s new proposed lottery system actually makes things worse and doesn’t fix tanking

The 3-2-1 lottery could ruin the play-in tournament and make the tanking pool larger.

NBA’s new proposed lottery system actually makes things worse and doesn’t fix tanking

The 3-2-1 lottery could ruin the play-in tournament and make the tanking pool larger.

The NBA draft has always been about one thing: injecting fresh talent into the league. For decades, the inverse record system was designed to promote parity—giving the worst teams the best shot at elite prospects so they could climb back into contention. But now, the league is pushing a new "3-2-1 lottery" system that, in theory, aims to solve the tanking problem. In practice, it might just make everything worse.

Here's the gist of the proposed system, which was recently outlined in a memo to all 30 NBA teams: Instead of the current weighted lottery, teams that finish between fourth and tenth in the lottery standings (meaning they're bad, but not the worst) would get three lottery balls each. Meanwhile, the three worst teams in the league would be penalized with just two balls apiece and can fall no lower than pick No. 12. The ninth and tenth seeds in each conference's play-in tournament would also get two balls each, while the losers of the 7-8 play-in games would get one. Oh, and no team can win the top pick in consecutive years or land three straight top-five selections.

Sounds complicated? It is. And it gets even messier when you consider the unintended consequences.

Let's start with the play-in tournament, one of Commissioner Adam Silver's proudest achievements. It added drama, boosted media rights value, and gave more teams a shot at the postseason. But under this new lottery system, the ninth and tenth seeds in each conference suddenly have a real incentive to lose. Why fight tooth and nail for a play-in spot when you could slide into the lottery pool and grab better odds? The play-in was supposed to encourage competition, but now it might encourage the exact opposite—teams tanking to stay out of the playoffs and into a better draft position.

And what about the teams at the very bottom? The whole point of the lottery is to help struggling franchises rebuild. By punishing the three worst teams, the league risks creating a wider tanking pool. Instead of a few teams jockeying for the bottom, you could have a dozen teams all trying to land in that sweet spot just outside the play-in, where the lottery odds are actually better. That's not fixing tanking—it's just moving the goalposts.

In the end, the 3-2-1 lottery feels like a solution in search of a problem. The current system isn't perfect, but it at least rewards being truly bad with a real chance at a franchise-changing player. This new proposal? It might just turn the draft into a game of musical chairs where everyone's afraid to win.

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