The Washington Nationals are on the verge of a series sweep against the Cincinnati Reds this Thursday, and the momentum is squarely in their favor. After taking the first two games of the set—a commanding 10-4 win followed by a tight 8-7 victory—both contests soared past the total, setting the stage for another high-scoring matinee at Great American Ball Park.

First pitch is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET, with the Nationals sending left-hander Foster Griffin to the mound. Griffin has been stellar this season, boasting a 4-1 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, while racking up 42 strikeouts. The Reds will counter with rookie sensation Chase Burns, who matches up almost identically with a 4-1 record, a 2.11 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP to go along with 48 strikeouts. It’s a battle of two arms that have been nearly untouchable, but recent trends suggest the bats may have the final say.

According to the latest odds, Cincinnati enters as a -160 favorite on the money line, meaning a $160 bet would net $100 if the Reds prevail. The over/under is set at 8 runs, and if the first two games of this series are any indication, bettors should expect fireworks. The Nationals and Reds have combined to go over the total in two of their last three and three of their last five games, respectively. Even more telling, the over has hit in nine of Cincinnati’s last 11 home contests.

SportsLine’s proven projection model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has been on a tear this season. Entering Week 8 on a 7-1 run for all top-rated MLB picks, the model also excelled at home run prop predictions in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. After running the numbers for this matchup, the model is leaning toward the over 8 combined runs once again.

For player props, the model projects strong performances from key hitters. Washington’s James Wood, Luis García, and CJ Abrams are each expected to record two or more total bases, while the Reds are projected to get over 1.5 total bases from their lineup. With both teams swinging hot bats and two talented pitchers on the mound, this afternoon clash promises to deliver plenty of action for fans and bettors alike.