Imagine a world where Luka Doncic is suiting up for the Memphis Grizzlies, Ben Simmons is wearing purple and gold for the Lakers, and the entire balance of NBA power is flipped on its head. That's exactly the kind of alternate reality we're looking at if the league's proposed lottery rule changes had been in place over the last decade.
The NBA is once again tweaking its draft lottery system, and this time the changes are anything but minor. The proposed rules flatten the lottery odds, punish the league's worst three teams with even lower chances at the top pick, and create a massive disincentive for tanking. Perhaps the most game-changing rule? Teams would be banned from selecting in the top five for three consecutive years.
Had that rule existed a decade ago, some of the most iconic draft moments in recent memory would have been completely rewritten. The Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Suns, Lakers, Sixers, and Magic would all have seen at least one of their top-five picks bumped out of the lottery's elite tier. The ripple effects would have reshaped the league as we know it.
Let's start with the biggest domino: the 2018 NBA Draft. Luka Doncic was one of the most polarizing prospects in recent memory. Some scouts had him as the clear No. 1 overall pick, while others preferred Marvin Bagley III or DeAndre Ayton. The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings fell into the latter camp, selecting Ayton and Bagley with the first two picks. Doncic slid to No. 3, where the Atlanta Hawks took him—only to trade him on draft night for Trae Young and a protected future first-round pick. The Hawks weren't exactly smitten with the Slovenian sensation.
Under the new rules, the Suns would have been ineligible for a top-five pick after taking Josh Jackson and Dragan Bender in previous drafts. That means the Kings would have moved up to No. 1, likely taking Ayton or Bagley. The Hawks would have been on the clock at No. 2, and given their lukewarm interest in Doncic, it's conceivable they would have passed on him again. But as one lead executive confirmed, there's no way Doncic would have fallen past No. 3. So where would he have landed? The Grizzlies, holding the third pick, would have had the chance to build their future around one of the most talented players of his generation.
And that's just the beginning. The Lakers, who drafted Brandon Ingram at No. 2 in 2016, would have been ineligible for a top-five pick the following year—meaning Ben Simmons could have ended up in Los Angeles instead of Philadelphia. The Sixers, meanwhile, would have seen their "Trust the Process" era take a very different turn. The ripple effects would have changed franchise trajectories, championship windows, and even the way teams approach rebuilding.
These hypotheticals are always fun to debate, but they also highlight just how much the lottery shapes the NBA's landscape. As the league moves forward with these anti-tanking measures, it's worth remembering that the difference between a top-five pick and a mid-lottery selection can alter the course of history. For teams like the Spurs, Rockets, and Pistons, the new rules would have forced them to think twice before bottoming out—and that might be the most valuable lesson of all.
