As the Pittsburgh Penguins gear up for the 2026-27 season, the spotlight isn't just on who's poised for a comeback—it's also on who might be due for a step back. After a season where several players exceeded expectations or posted career numbers, some regression is almost inevitable. Let's dive into a few Penguins who could see their production cool off next year.

First up is Justin Brazeau, who was one of the team's more surprising signings last summer. He delivered a career-high 17 goals and 34 points, quickly becoming a fan favorite. But here's the catch: his hot start was almost too good to be true. Through the end of December, Brazeau had 12 goals and 20 points in just 24 games. Over the final 40 games, however, that pace slowed dramatically to just five goals and 14 points. Injuries played a role, but the early-season magic never fully returned.

Brazeau is a classic late-bloomer—it's taken him time at every level to find his rhythm. The question now is whether this season was a genuine breakout or a flash in the pan. He's got the tools: great size, a physical edge, and surprisingly soft hands for a big man. He didn't just score on garbage goals; some of his tallies were downright skillful. Still, expecting him to replicate that early surge might be a stretch. Even if he settles into a 15-goal, 25-30 point role as a bottom-six forward, that's still valuable—but it's a far cry from the 20-plus goal pace he teased early on.

It's worth noting that we're only looking at players under contract for next season, so Anthony Mantha—who's almost certainly due for regression wherever he lands—won't be included here. For the Penguins, the key will be managing expectations. A few players are riding high after career years, and history tells us that the pendulum often swings back. As the team looks to reload, keeping an eye on these potential regression candidates could be just as important as celebrating the bounce-back stories.