When Johnson Wagner first heard Rory McIlroy's bold predictions about Aronimink this week, he was ready to agree that the major championship scoring record might be in jeopardy. But after getting a firsthand look at the course, the veteran analyst has completely changed his tune.

For context, the record to beat is an astonishing 21-under par, set by Xander Schauffele when he won the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla. It's the lowest score to par in any of golf's four majors, and McIlroy had fans buzzing when he suggested that Aronimink's setup might not test every aspect of a player's game, essentially turning the week into a driver-heavy slugfest.

"There's little need for strategy off the tee," McIlroy claimed, indicating that bombing it as far as possible would be the winning formula. But Wagner, speaking on Scorecard ahead of Thursday's opening round, now sees a very different picture unfolding.

"I'm taking the under on that," Wagner said. "They topped the rough today. They cut maybe an inch off of it yesterday. When I was watching these guys play out the rough, nobody hit the green from any hole out of the rough. And with it being topped, it's a little bit different now."

Wagner pointed out that Aronimink is a par-70 layout, which naturally limits scoring opportunities compared to the par-72 courses where records are often set. But the real challenge lies in the thick, dense rough and the intricate green complexes that make approach shots a nightmare.

"With the density of the rough, the ball's going to drop. It's just not easy to get the ball onto the green," Wagner explained. "I was thinking going into the week the same as you, but after walking on the grounds and seeing this golf course up close and personal, I think I'm taking under."

Wagner isn't alone in his revised outlook. Justin Rose called McIlroy's comments "a shame," suggesting the four-time major winner might be underestimating the test ahead. And with McIlroy reportedly walking off the course during a practice round due to a blister on his foot, there's growing concern that he may not have the most complete view of what awaits when the first round tees off.

For fans hoping to see history made this week, Wagner's warning is clear: don't count on that scoring record falling just yet. Aronimink has a few surprises in store.