The IPL 2026 playoff race is heating up, and with only 11 matches left in the league stage, the picture is becoming clearer—though there's still plenty of drama ahead. Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians have already been eliminated, but for the remaining eight teams, every ball counts. Let's break down who's in pole position and who's clinging to hope.
Gujarat Titans are sitting pretty. They're all but guaranteed a top-four finish, with their only potential hiccup being net run rate. In fact, they have a staggering 90.2% chance of securing a top-two spot, either alone or in a tie. They're the team to beat right now.
Royal Challengers Bangalore are not far behind. With a 99.4% probability of making the playoffs and an 83.4% shot at a top-two finish, RCB fans can start planning for the knockout stages. Their consistent performances have paid off.
Sunrisers Hyderabad also have strong odds—82.8% to finish in the top four and a 38.9% chance of being among the top two. They'd have to stumble badly from here to miss out, but stranger things have happened in the IPL.
Rajasthan Royals have improved their standing, now with a 60.4% chance of cracking the top four and a 19.9% shot at a top-two spot. They're in a solid position but still need to close out strong.
Punjab Kings are right on the edge—their playoff chances sit at 50.3%, making it a coin flip. However, their odds of finishing in the top two are slim at just 9.8%.
Meanwhile, Chennai Super Kings have taken a major hit. After Friday's loss, their playoff probability has plummeted to 35.9%, and their top-two chances are only 11.1%. It's been a tough week for the Yellow Army.
At the bottom of the pack, Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Capitals are hanging by a thread. KKR has just a 5.1% chance of making the playoffs, while DC sits at 6.1%. Neither team can even tie for a top-two spot anymore.
With 2,048 possible result combinations still in play, nothing is set in stone. But the numbers tell a clear story: GT and RCB are cruising, while CSK, KKR, and DC are fighting an uphill battle. For fans of the top contenders, it's time to gear up—playoff season is almost here.