The NFL Draft is often the yardstick by which recruiting rankings are judged. Coming out of college football, the NFL Draft represents the best indication of a player’s ability. Early-round NFL Draft picks account for the vast majority of the best players in college football. Outside of recruiting rankings, it’s the only other point in a player’s career where they are sorted by talent and ability in a quantitative form.
With that in mind, a report card for how recruiting rankings across the industry stack up can be produced by scoring the NFL Draft. Doing so allows us to learn from successes and mistakes in hopes of improving our rankings product down the road.
By and large, the recruiting industry does a great job of projecting future success at the college level on an annual basis. Forecasting a 17-18 year-old high school football player as a future early-round draft pick relative to thousands of peers is much easier said than done.
The method: To keep this as simple as possible, we will assign a winner for each draft pick based on how close the numeric ranking is to their draft spot. If there is an equal distance between multiple rankings and the draft spot, the tied sites will get credit for a win, including if the highest ranking is an unranked four-star. No winner is awarded for players who were not ranked as a blue-chip prospect (4-star or 5-star) by any site.
1. On3 – closest ranking on 8 first-rounders2. 247Sports, ESPN, Rivals (previous scouting team)– closest ranking on 6 first-rounders (tied)
Three year running total for closest ranking of first-rounders from 2021-2023 cycles:
On3’s rankings in this NFL Draft include blue-chip prospects from the 2021 cycle (4-stars and 5-stars) along with the 2022 and 2023 cycles. One of ESPN’s wins (Akheem Mesidor in the 2020 cycle) came before On3’s inception.
Similar to last year, On3 and 247Sports had the most consistent rankings relative to draft spot. With that said, the difference in average distance from draft spot was much shorter than in the first round of the 2025 draft with each outlet having its fair share of wins.
Note: Beginning with the 2026 cycle (as early as the 2029 NFL Draft) there will be three outlets compared: Rivals, 247Sports, and ESPN following On3’s acquisition and integration of Rivals as its recruiting brand in July 2025.
Overall, it was a stellar showing by the recruiting industry as 25/32 (78%) first-rounders were ranked as a five-star or a four-star by at least one outlet. Two of the seven non-blue-chip players signed with a G6 program out of high school, making for a 83.3% hit rate on blue-chip first-rounders who signed at the Power 4 level.
Five-star prospects are meant to project as future first-round picks. Here is the tally of five-stars taken in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft:
1. Rivals (previous scouting team) – 72. On3, 247Sports, ESPN – 6 (tie)
10 of the 32 first-round picks were ranked as a five-star prospect by at least one outlet, with Sonny Styles, Francis Mauigoa, Caleb Downs, and Kadyn Proctor being Five-Star Plus+ prospects, those tabbed as a five-star by every outlet.
3 year running total of 5-stars taken in the first round from 2021-2023 cycles:
On3 – 25 247Sports – 24 Rivals (previous scouting team) – 20 ESPN – 14
The first round almost always features some prospects who were under-recruited and underrated, but history and data shows those prospects are the exception, not the rule.
It’s now well-established that Fernando Mendoza flew heavily under the radar as a high school prospect. Mendoza was committed to Yale at the time On3’s rankings were finalized for the 2022 cycle, with it looking like he was headed to the Ivy League. He received a late offer from Cal – his only Power 4 offer and second FBS offer along with Florida International and signed with the Golden Bears in February. While he’s been dubbed as a former two-star prospect, Mendoza was a Rivals Industry three-star albeit lowly ranked in that group. Aside from Cal, he was not given much attention by college staffs and was admittedly not offered a walk-on spot at hometown Miami.
In going back and looking at Mendoza as a high school prospect with the benefit of hindsight, you can pin much of his slow recruitment on the lack of production. Mendoza played at a very good program in Miami Columbus, but was not a high volume or productive passer on Friday nights, finishing his senior year with 1,169 passing yards and 11 touchdowns against four interceptions. With that said, camp footage does reveal physical tools that certainly exceeded his recruiting status. Mendoza was 6-foot-4.5, 210 pounds with a live arm and strong fundamental foundation. Strictly from a tools perspective, he was certainly good enough to land at the Power 4 level, but there are limited quarterback spots and teams fill up quickly. The projectable size and arm strength combined with his work ethic, intelligence and three seasons of starting reps in college led to a breakout season in 2025.
Winner: 247SportsOn3: 4-star, No. 51 (2022)247Sports: 4-star, No. 34 (2022)ESPN: 4-star, No. 122 (2022)Rivals (previous scouting team): 4-star No. 81 (2022)
David Bailey was a senior riser in the 2022 cycle on the heels of a big final fall at SoCal powerhouse Mater Dei. Bailey was considered a physically talented prospect but was a bit of an unknown at least as a truly high-level projection going into his senior season. He was injured much of his sophomore year and did not play a full fall junior season as a result of COVID-19 cancellations. The senior season answered many questions, as Bailey was hyper productive racking up 20.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks while playing some of the nation’s toughest competition. No outlet finished with Bailey as a five-star, though he likely would’ve made a strong push with more neutral site exposure. We never got to evaluate him in person at national all-star games or camps as an upperclassman. With that said, the film was outstanding and he should’ve been a five-star in hindsight.