The Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets face a win-or-go-home scenario in a high-stakes 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament clash on Tuesday night. With the winner advancing to a final play-in game for the eighth seed, the pressure is immense for both Southeast Division rivals.

While the Heat secured the regular-season series 3-1, the Hornets delivered a stunning 136-106 statement victory in their last meeting on March 17, proving they can dominate when it counts. Miami (43-39) will need to overcome their road struggles, while Charlotte (44-38) will look to leverage their home-court advantage at Spectrum Center.

Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, with the Hornets opening as 5.5-point favorites and the total points over/under set at 228.5. For those analyzing the matchup, the SportsLine Projection Model—which simulates every game 10,000 times—has been on a hot streak, entering the playoffs with a 72% success rate on top-rated NBA spread picks this season.

The model has now crunched the numbers for this critical elimination game, factoring in recent form, historical data, and key player performances. Its simulations have produced specific picks for the point spread and over/under, offering valuable insights for this tightly contested play-in battle.