Fantasy Baseball Today: Zack Wheeler's return shows promise but signals new reality post-injury and more

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Fantasy Baseball Today: Zack Wheeler's return shows promise but signals new reality post-injury and more - Image 4

Fantasy Baseball Today: Zack Wheeler's return shows promise but signals new reality post-injury and more

Returns bring mixed results as expectations continue to shift

Fantasy Baseball Today: Zack Wheeler's return shows promise but signals new reality post-injury and more

Returns bring mixed results as expectations continue to shift

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Just a note: Today's newsletter is going to be a bit more brief than your typical Monday morning reading. Why's that? I had to fill in for Frank Stampfl, hosting Fantasy Baseball Today last night, and lemme tell you: That's a lot of work.

So I won't be giving my usual six (or so) takeaways from this weekend's action. You will find my thoughts on some of the weekend's biggest storylines in my Week 6 Waiver Wire column here, and the biggest news of the weekend can be found at the bottom of today's newsletter.

But I did want to make sure I hit on one big storyline from this weekend: Zack Wheeler's return, what it looked like, and what it means moving forward.

Big picture: If you were expecting Wheeler to look absolutely no worse for the wear coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery, you're going to be disappointed. But if you were worried about the absolute worst-case scenario outcomes where he just doesn't even look like he belongs, fear not; that also wasn't the case.

All told, Wheeler pitched extremely well, though! Facing a Braves lineup that has been one of the best in baseball so far this season, he limited them to two earned runs on three hits over his five innings of work. He struck out six on 15 whiffs, which was especially nice to see, and the three walks can probably be chalked up to rust; he threw just 32% of his pitches in the strike zone, a number that probably won't stay that low.

The velocity was down, as expected, though I suppose you can look at that from both angles, too. If you're inclined to be optimistic, you'll point to his 95.6 mph average fastball velocity in the first inning as a sign that he's still capable of getting up to the level he lived at pre-injury; he averaged 96.1 mph last season. Even for one inning, it looked like he could still dial it up like that.

On the other side – and the one I ultimately fall on – you have the fact that Wheeler couldn't sustain that velocity at all. He dropped to 94.6 mph with the four-seamer in the second inning and averaged 94.2 mph over the final four innings of his game. That's up a little from where he was for much of his rehab assignment, but still down 2 mph from the last time he was healthy, and he was down to 93.6 mph by the fifth inning.

I'm inclined to chalk the first inning up to adrenaline. That's not to say he can't continue to build on this, but my expectation moving forward is that Wheeler is a lot more likely to live around 94 mph than 96. That doesn't mean he can't succeed – we've seen Brandon Woodruff remain a very effective pitcher despite a similar drop in fastball velocity, and Wheeler has the kind of stuff and command profile that could make it work like Woodruff has. But I do think it lowers both the floor and ceiling for Wheeler; he might still be capable of great starts, but they'll be fewer in number than they were in the past, and the poor starts will probably be a little worse. The good nights will be less representative of the true talent level, and the bad nights will be just a bit more real.

But I don't want you to panic. Wheeler still looked pretty good, and I do think it's reasonable to expect him to be an above-average pitcher moving forward. At least in his first start, the bottom hasn't fallen out of his profile.  According to the Stuff+ model on FanGraphs.com, Wheeler dropped from a 111 mark last season to a 104 in his first start; that's like going from a top-five mark in 2025 to around 20th among 52 qualifiers.

I think that's a good mental model for Wheeler moving forward. He's probably not going to be an elite pitcher again. It's asking too much at 35, coming off a notoriously tricky injury for pitchers. But he's probably not going to be hopeless, either. Maybe he's more like Sandy Alcantara moving forward; maybe it's like Kevin Gausman, or maybe a Tanner Bibee comp might work. There's a fairly wide range of outcomes at play here, including that Wheeler pitches well but just struggles to stay on the mound.

It was a good first start, though. And it's one he might be able to build on. It's possible I'm being too pessimistic. But the biggest thing I was looking for in Wheeler's debut was evidence that he still belongs. And we got that, at least.

For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here.

1. Pirates STL4, CIN32. Dodgers MIA3, @STL33. Mets WAS3, @LAA34. Red Sox @TOR3, HOU35. Brewers ARI3, @WAS3

1. Marlins @LAD3, PHI32. Yankees @TEX3, BAL33. Mariners @MIN3, KC34. Twins SEA3, TOR45. Rays @CLE3, SF3

You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks.

He gone. Jordan Romano was designated for assignment Sunday, a big fall for a guy who opened the season as the Angels' closer. The ninth inning here is wide open, but my money remains on Kirby Yates ending up in the job. A few guys got a try at some high-leverage situations Sunday, and all of them failed. There just isn't a ton of talent here, but maybe Yates can change that.

Geraldo Perdomo missed Sunday's game due to an ankle sprain suffered Saturday. The Diamondbacks have maintained they don't expect an IL stint for Perdomo, but if I have an alternative ready at SS, I don't mind sitting him this week.

The Braves haven't committed to Reynaldo Lopez making his next start, but they have committed to JR Ritchie for Wednesday's game. They'll have a decision to make when Spencer Strider is ready to come off the IL, and this could be a hint.

Strider made what is expected to be his last rehab start Sunday. The results were fine, but after he showed some flashes of a better fastball in his previous start, he lost an inch of IVB and about a tick of velo on the pitch this time around. I'm still hoping Strider can be a useful Fantasy option, but I am not expecting him to be an ace again. There will be nights, even whole months, where he just doesn't have it, even if there could still be some impressive stretches.

Trey Yesavage will return to Toronto's rotation Tuesday against the Red Sox, with Eric Lauer going to the bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised if they were extra cautious with his workload, as he only got up to 64 pitches in his last rehab start. That makes him a risky start.

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