The buzz around the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race is already heating up, and all eyes are on Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Mendoza was widely regarded as the top prospect in his class. According to ESPN's Ben Solak, he's the early favorite to take home the OROY award next season.
History tells us that quarterbacks who start most of the season—and produce—tend to dominate this award. Take 2023, for example: Texans QB C.J. Stroud and Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua both had phenomenal rookie campaigns. Nacua's season was truly historic, setting rookie records with 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards—a yardage mark that had stood for 63 years. Yet Stroud still won in a landslide, earning 48 of 50 first-place votes. Similarly, in 2019, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray secured the award over Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, despite Murray's modest stats, simply because he started all 16 games. The pattern is clear: early-season starting quarterbacks have a built-in advantage.
Mendoza brings serious credentials to the table. Last season at Indiana, he threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns, capping it off with a Heisman Trophy win. He's being hailed as the Raiders' next franchise quarterback, and for good reason. However, his path to a prolific rookie season isn't without obstacles. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins is also on the roster, and if the Raiders decide to use him as a bridge starter in 2026, Mendoza could see limited playing time early on. That said, if Mendoza takes the reins as the starter in Las Vegas, his talent and supporting cast could help him outshine the rest of his rookie class.
Other rookies to watch include Tennessee Titans wide receiver Carnell Tate and Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love. Tate fills a major need for the Titans as an outside receiver and has the potential to rack up significant yardage. Love, meanwhile, brings the explosiveness to rush for 1,000 yards in 2026 for the Cardinals. But if history is any guide, the OROY trophy is Mendoza's to lose—provided he's under center from Week 1.