Last week we posted about the history of teams coming back from 0-3 holes in a series, mostly for something to do on an off day. There wasn’t a lot of reason to believe that the Penguins would have much of a chance left against the Flyers at that point based on how the games were going.
Following two wins in Games 4 and 5, that tone deserves to shift a little bit. If the Pens can somehow get by a road game on Wednesday in Game 6, their home barn will be rockin’ and they’ll have all the momentum with all the pressure on Philadelphia for Game 7. They’re still in trouble since they’re the only team in the series who can have their season come to an end on Wednesday night, but now the weight of the pressure is starting to shift.
In fact, at this point the Pens have done better than most teams who go down 0-3 to even have the series alive still for a Game 6.
Series results of a best-of-7 series in Stanley Cup playoff history where a team took a 3-0 series lead: 🏒 131 won in 4 games🏒 58 won in 5 games🏒 16 won in 6 games🏒 6 won in Game 7🏒 4 lost the series pic.twitter.com/iZQ3Qqe5pD
Only four of the 215 instances has a team come all the way back to win a series, but usually series that go 3-0 are wrapped up by the end of Game 5. Two of those already happened this year once Ottawa and Los Angeles got swept away in their respective series by Carolina and Colorado.
Doing the math, that means 87.9% of 3-0 series are wrapped up by where the Penguins are now, with the team down 0-3 either losing in Game 4 (131 times) or Game 5 (58 occasions). Only 26 of the 215 teams in that situation have even managed to force a Game 6, with the 2026 Penguins added in.
It’s still an uphill battle, teams that were down 0-3 that make it far enough to force a Game 6 are only 10-16 all-time in those Game 6s. And then 4-6 if they can really buck the odds to force a Game 7. Historically speaking, the team that’s behind is still more likely to run out of gas or have a bad night that wraps it up before completing the epic comeback.
The majority of instances in the NHL, when you go down 3-0, there’s not a Game 6 at all. The Pens have worked and earned getting further than many teams do. Whether they can make history for the NHL’s first 0-3 comeback since 2014 is on the table, but that job is still only halfway finished.
It will be a while yet to see if the Penguins can add their name to history or fade away into the past, but by even coming this far they’ve made it further than most who get into the predicament of being on the wrong side of a 3-0 series.