For Washington Nationals fans, Cade Cavalli has long been more of a myth than a reality. Drafted in the first round back in 2020, the right-hander blazed through the minor leagues with electric stuff, giving glimpses of a future ace. He got a brief taste of the big leagues in 2022, but then an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training sidelined him for over two seasons. When he finally returned to Washington late in 2025, his stats were decent but he looked far from the dominant prospect everyone had dreamed of.

Many pegged Cavalli as a breakout candidate heading into 2026, but early outings showed him struggling to put hitters away. Now, at long last, it seems the Nats' once-promised frontline starter is knocking on the door.

While two games is a small sample size, Cavalli appears to have unlocked something special. In back-to-back starts against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, he threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowing just four total runs while striking out 10 batters in each outing. That feat—consecutive double-digit strikeout games—has only been achieved by four other pitchers in Nationals history: Max Scherzer (20 times), Stephen Strasburg (six times), Patrick Corbin, and Gio Gonzalez. Cavalli now joins that exclusive company.

The numbers back up the eye test. Cavalli's strikeout rate has jumped from 18% in 2025 to 27% in 2026. His HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has fallen from .259 to .246. He looks completely in control on the mound, with his stuff ticking up noticeably.

Digging deeper, even his solid 3.82 ERA may understate how effective he's become. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at an elite 2.82—a full run lower than his ERA—while his BABIP has climbed to over .400. That's a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon. In simple terms, Cavalli has been unlucky so far, and when those batted balls start finding gloves instead of gaps, his numbers could get even better.

The early-season struggles were rooted in an inability to miss bats and finish off hitters. Now, Cavalli is doing exactly that—and Nationals fans are finally seeing the pitcher they've been waiting for.