The Indiana Pacers are heading into the NBA Draft lottery with more than just ping-pong balls in their corner—they're bringing a "swimming pool of karma points," according to Bill Simmons of The Ringer. After back-to-back stellar seasons that saw them reach the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2025, the Pacers hit a rough patch in 2025-26, finishing 19-63. But despite the tumble, optimism is high that this is just a temporary setback.
The story of the Pacers' fall is rooted in a single, devastating moment. Star guard Tyrese Haliburton blew out his right Achilles in the first quarter of Game 7 of the 2025 Finals, a game the Oklahoma City Thunder ultimately won. Haliburton missed the entire 2025-26 season, and a cascade of early injuries left Indiana scrambling uphill all year. It was, as Simmons put it, "the worst possible outcome" from a calculated risk with their best player.
Now, the Pacers enter Sunday's lottery (May 10, 3 p.m. ET, with T.J. McConnell representing the team) with a slightly better than 50% chance of landing a top-four pick. But here's the twist: they also have a slightly less than 50% chance of losing their first-round pick entirely. It's a "Survivor"-style coin flip, as Simmons calls it.
On a recent episode of his podcast, Simmons and "First Things First" co-host Nick Wright ranked lottery teams by their "karma points," and Indiana came out on top. The logic? The Pacers didn't tear down their roster or tank intentionally—they took a "gap year" after an incredible run. "We recalibrated," Wright explained. "We didn't tear it down. They're well-run. They have a plan."
Simmons painted a picture of what could happen if the coin lands in Indiana's favor: "They flip the coin, and if it comes up heads, they get a top-four pick. And they get Ivica Zubac, and they get Tyrese Haliburton coming back. If that happens, they're probably going to be the No. 2 favorite in the East." That's a massive leap from a 19-win season, but with Haliburton's return and a potential lottery prize, the Pacers could be back in contention faster than anyone expects.
The draft lottery is always a moment of high drama, but for Indiana, it feels like the payoff for two seasons of grit and one season of bad luck. Whether the karma points cash in remains to be seen, but the Pacers' future is one of the most intriguing storylines in the league right now.