The San Francisco 49ers are either cooler on the top wide receiver prospects than many thought, or recognized that Day 2 of the NFL Draft is where the sweet spot is. Free agent investments also allow the team to be patient when it comes to selecting a wideout. There are about a dozen players who could get drafted on Friday at the position. They all come in different shapes and sizes.
Comparing prospects to NFL players often leaves a lot to be desired, as there’s usually no middle ground. We tend to gravitate toward high-end comps to paint a picture of a player’s ceiling.
Then there are others who can’t help themselves from hyperbole. “He reminds me of Terrell Owens.” “I see more of a Reggie Wayne.” Or, any 5’9” receiver with a bit of physicality is often seen as the second coming of Steve Smith.
We’ll do our best to avoid comparing college kids to Hall-of-Fame-type players, but there are no promises. Today, we’re using NFL IQ to help us identify how prospects with similar measurables have panned out in the NFL.
Let’s start with a player who should have been drafted in the first round if not for injury. He has proved that he can win in NFL ways and would be in the conversation for teams in the teens had he not suffered a hamstring injury.
You don’t have to worry about Bell catching the ball. His 10″ hands are in the 87th percentile. Bell had the fourth-highest target share in this wide receiver class, ran a route tree that had 32 percent of his routes down the field, and still only had four drops. It looks like that when he catches the ball. The pigskin doesn’t move when Bell gets his hands on it.
I asked NFL IQ how many receivers over 6’1” with at least 10” of hand length had 1,000-yard seasons. The group’s gold standard is Michael Thomas. The former Saints wideout had 1,137 yards receiving as a rookie in 2016. That increased every year through 2019, where he peaked at 1,725.
Other examples include Alshon Jeffrey, Keenan Allen, JuJu Smitch-Schuster, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, Marin Jones, and Kelvin Benjamin. There’s another example: a couple of inches taller, but a burner who ate up defenders’ angles, just as Bell did in college. Demaryius Thomas is admittedly a bigger player, but it would not have been a surprise to see Bell come close to Thomas’s 4.38 40, as he’s already reaching 18 miles per hour:
#Louisville WR Chris Bell, a potential first-rounder before tearing his ACL in November, is running 18+ MPH and ahead of schedule in rehab, per agent @ErikBurkhardt and Dr. Dan Cooper who preformed his surgery. At 6’2.5, 222 lbs with 4.3 speed, Bell is likely a Friday pick. pic.twitter.com/RSQX4VO8Zt
Thomas had five consecutive seasons in which he surpassed 1,000 yards. He also had three consecutive seasons of 10+ touchdowns. You can spam targets to the players unbothered by contact at the catch point because their hands are the size of a skillet.
Don’t let Bell slipping to Friday deceive you into thinking he won’t be successful in the NFL. Since 2014, there have been a plethora of wide receivers drafted in the second round who were successful. Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Alex Pierce, and Courtland Sutton were all drafted in this round.
Boston visited the 49ers in late March. Boston’s profile has been successful in the NFL. I wondered how many wide receivers over 6’3″ with a vertical sub-36″ had 1,000-yard seasons as pros. Mike Evans is the ceiling comp for the Boston architect. He also jumped 37 inches, so he isn’t listed. Boston jumped 35″, which is in the 42nd percentile.
Seven-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green falls under this umbrella. The same with Mike Williams (1,000-yard season in 2021), Kelvin Benjamin, Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton, and George Pickens.
Another player who falls into this category and makes some sense as a comp is former Detroit Lions wide receiver, Kenny Golladay. I’d call Boston a more refined Golladay.
Golladay had five red zone touchdowns on 16 targets during his breakout season in 2018. The next season, he caught seven touchdowns on 17 targets in the red area. That is the kind of threat the 49ers need and would rely on.
Boston isn’t as flashy as some other wideouts in the draft, but he knows how to win off the line of scrimmage, stay on his line, find the soft spot in zones, and is sneaky good after the catch. You can see Boston’s elite 3-cone time with his separation at the top of his routes and when it’s time to get in and out of his breaks. I’m a fan and believe he should be viewed in the same group as the other top wideouts in this class.
Stribling is the next wide receiver on my board. I’m obnoxiously high on him. I have Bell WR2, Boston WR3, and Stribling WR6 behind KC Concepcion, but ahead of Makai Lemon and Omar Cooper Jr., two players drafted in the first round. To say I’m bullish on Stribling is an understatement. He’s the most Shanahan/McVay type of receiver in this draft.
Stribling caught 74 percent of his targets last season for 811 yards and six touchdowns. The majority of those came under ten yards, but you could see the NFL ability at the intermediate range. Stribling caught four of his six contested targets in this area and went on to force a pair of missed tackles.
He turns 24 in December, so being on the older side is why Stribling might fall to the third round. He’s over 6’2″ and 200 pounds. The hands are 10″. Stribling ran a 4.36 with a broad jump in the 82nd percentile. He plays as he tests.
The athletic testing isn’t what sold me. It was his usage as a blocker and how Stribling imposed his physical will play after play. However, I used that athletic testing and narrowed the weight to 200 to 210 pounds to avoid specimens like Julio Jones.