It seems like a self-evident question, one I personally thought I’d given more than sufficient thought to − especially in the context of assignments like this − than it might have even merited. But it’s seemingly becoming a more complicated query in the league’s current environment – particularly at its most critical position.
Years ago, I’d compiled – and subsequently updated – a list of the NFL’s biggest draft busts over the past few decades. In the more recent iterations, Sam Darnold landed on it. I’d always considered him a highly promising, and often effective, player in untenable situations where he didn’t get requisite support – namely his hitches with the Jets and Panthers at the start of the career.
Nevertheless, good players are able to overcome their circumstances, and Darnold simply had not been able to early on. And even if much – or even most – of the blame for his struggles didn’t seem to lie at his feet, it was hard to regard him as anything other than a bust six years into his career given the circumstances he left behind in New York and Carolina.
Then Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who had a major hand in turning Darnold into a Pro Bowler, made one of those profound – if obvious, in retrospect – statements: "I just think as a whole, there's not enough emphasis put on the organization's role in the development of the (quarterback) position – meaning I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations," O'Connell said as Darnold’s career was belatedly taking off under his watch in 2024.
Nearly two years on, O’Connell’s organization finds itself in the throes of a similar debate after signing Kyler Murray – the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NFL Draft once replaced 2018 first-round QB Josh Rosen after just one season – as it tries to find the right answer behind center after 2024 Round 1 QB J.J. McCarthy failed to fill Darnold’s void after the Vikes opted not to re-sign him in 2025.
As for Darnold? As we all know, his landing was more than soft, the third overall pick of the 2018 draft exorcising his "ghosts" to become the first quarterback of that vaunted class (which includes Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield) to win a Super Bowl as QB1 of the Seattle Seahawks last season.
“I’ve always believed in myself, and I’ve always had confidence in myself to do my job. And I learned,” Darnold said before Super Bowl 60. “I learned a ton from the mistakes that I made early on in my career, and I feel like that kind of mindset has gotten me to this point.”
Good on him. Maybe if Darnold was able to serve as a microcosm for the NYJ and Carolina, those franchises would currently be in a far better place.
Regardless, it’s a reminder that football operations are often equally, if not more, at fault for players’ failures than they are – and why Darnold is officially off this busts list. And in an era when success must often be microwaved and so little time is devoted to player development, particularly at quarterback, maybe a little more grace and patience should be afforded to players, especially the Darnolds and Mayfields of the world. (And don’t expect McCarthy or Michael Penix Jr. to show up as busts – here – prematurely, either.)
Some words about the methodology of this list: The ranking and analysis are certainly interspersed with opinion. But I tried not to view these wayward picks in a vacuum – taking into account what teams sacrificed to take a player, either in terms of trade currency or whom they opted not to select, when evaluating each bust. Some deals themselves are included since many prevented teams from choosing superior options. Naturally, extra weight was given to quarterback gaffes.
Lastly, I tried to have some fun and creativity in select spots to keep you engaged, so try not to get too bent out of shape if that guard or safety your team took in the top 10 before he petered out didn't warrant a mention.
With that, here we go – and you'll note I managed to shoehorn more than *50* players into this rundown of the 50 biggest busts of the past 50 years.
It seems patently obvious who was superior more than a quarter-century after the fact, but he was very much in the conversation to be this draft's No. 1 pick. Of course, the Colts wisely chose eventual five-time league MVP Peyton Manning. Meanwhile, the Bolts set themselves back years by taking Leaf (4-14 in 18 starts for the club with a 48.8 passer rating), whose gross immaturity and inability to solve pro defenses trumped his vast physical talent. What cements his infamy is the price San Diego paid to simply swap its initial No. 3 pick to get Arizona's spot at No. 2 (more on that later). But the freight the Cardinals commanded, aside from the switch, was a second-rounder, an additional first-rounder in 1999 and two veterans (WR Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp). Oof.
The Sports Illustrated cover boy deemed "The Incredible Bulk" prior to the draft – he had uncommon athleticism and size for the position at the time – was labeled "The NFL's Incredible Bust" by SI only three years later. Mandarich's steroid-fueled body and poor work ethic didn't hold up against professional competition, and he later descended into drug and alcohol abuse. Any value he later provided at guard might have helped the Colts but obviously didn't do the Pack any good. But this context truly frames his failure: Mandarich was the only player selected in the top five that year who didn't wind up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Troy Aikman went No. 1, but Green Bay passed on Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders.
It turned out to be a miserable year for passers, the likes of Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton also taken way too early. But Russell, who began his career with a lengthy holdout, never fulfilled the hype generated by his howitzer arm and legendary pro day. He lasted just three seasons, losing 18 of 25 starts and compiling an abysmal 65.2 passer rating, before laziness and weight gain washed him out of the league. Who could Oakland (at the time) have taken instead? Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch and Darrelle Revis all came off the board in the first half of Round 1.
San Francisco surrendered four picks, three of them first-rounders, to get into position for a guy who was basically a one-year starter at North Dakota State. In fairness to Lance, then-incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo, subsequent injuries and a shoddy development plan that HC Kyle Shanahan largely blamed himself for derailed Lance before he had a legitimate chance to prove himself in Silicon Valley. But the Niners saw enough to pull the plug after two years, opting to give the reins to 2022 seventh-rounder Brock Purdy and sending Lance to Dallas for a Round 4 pick. (Lance has been a backup with the Chargers since last year.) But just imagine if the 49ers had taken Ja'Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Patrick Surtain or Micah Parsons instead of Lance … who maybe eventually blossoms elsewhere, little good as that will do San Fran.
Now queue up the unfortunate 2021 QB corollaries – and brace yourself, Jets fans, as this is merely the first of many mentions. The NYJ effectively threw in the towel on Wilson in 2023 after trading for four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers … then were quickly forced to turn back to the BYU product, who again miserably failed in his third attempt to produce at a level commensurate with his draft billing. Traded to the Denver Broncos during the 2024 draft, Wilson is now with the New Orleans Saints – his NFL completion rate (57%) and passer rating (73.1) presently married to 23 TD passes and 34 turnovers. The mistake is magnified by the fact the Jets could have augmented the roster in 2021 around Darnold with Chase, Sewell, Surtain or Parsons, among others.
Recently acquired by the Kansas City Chiefs after a perplexing year in Pittsburgh in 2024 and a horrendous one with the Jets last season, maybe a guy with titillating dual-threat abilities resurrects his career ... at some point. But not before the Chicago Bears sent four draft selections (including two first-rounders) to the New York Giants to get Fields five years ago … then almost completely failed to put a legitimate supporting cast around him for two seasons. Many of Fields’ frequent failures must be laid at the doorstep of Halas Hall, a building that’s been so dysfunctional in recent years that the Bears were in position to replace him just three years later – 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams now charged with trying to overcome his surroundings, though coach Ben Johnson seemed to redress quite a few of the issues for a squad that won the NFC North in 2025.
With the help of former New England OC Josh McDaniels, he looked like a legitimate NFL starter … for a year, anyway. Then it all fell apart for Jones, also largely undermined by an organization that didn’t give him sufficient positional coaching or playmakers. It got so bad in 2023, the decision was made to send Jones home in a trade with Jacksonville, where he backed up Trevor Lawrence in 2024. Now, like Darnold did, Jones is hoping to initiate something of a career reboot while apprenticing with Shanahan and the 49ers − and the early returns were promising in 2025, but Jones is apparently still a year away from a second chance.
He looked like Uncle Rico, threw like him, too ... and basically played like the “Napoleon Dynamite” folk hero. Navigating into the top spot for George forced Indianapolis to surrender Pro Bowl OT Chris Hinton, future Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison and a first-round pick in 1991 to Atlanta – where George wound up himself in 1994 after wearing out his welcome with a bad attitude and 14-35 record for the Colts, who passed on three eventual Hall of Famers in the first round (more on them later). Never particularly popular in the locker room, George played for five different teams – and did post better numbers, if not many more wins, later in his career.