Ben FawkesSenior sports betting analystFri, April 24, 2026 at 2:38 PM UTC·3 min readRound 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, and a draft in which there were thought to be plenty of potential surprises in the top 10 certainly delivered.
We knew that Indiana QB and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (-10000 at BetMGM) was going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, but after that we didn’t know much.
The betting market for the No. 2 pick had shifted almost daily leading up Thursday night between Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Ohio State’s Arvell Reese. But in the hours before the draft began, Reese pulled away at BetMGM and other sportsbooks to become a sizable favorite to go No. 2.
Many mock drafts had Bailey going No. 2, while some bettors clearly had information that Reese was going to be the pick.
Instead, the Jets took Bailey at No. 2 and the Arizona Cardinals took Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, setting off a chain reaction that resulted in some long-shots cashing for bettors.
Carnell Tate was a surprise going No. 4 to the Tennessee Titans as well, as Tate closed with 50-1 odds to go No. 4 overall.
The Los Angeles Rams taking Alabama QB Ty Simpson at No. 13 was also a shocker, both cashing the over 1.5 QBs in Round 1 wager, but also cashing the under on Simpson’s draft position which had been bet up from 24.5 all the way to 29.5.
“Jets going with Bailey set off a chain reaction that gave us some losers,” Christian Cipollini, BetMGM NFL trader, told Yahoo Sports on Friday morning. “Arvell Reese at No. 5 was one of our worst markets, and Love at No. 3 was also not good. Simpson going early wasn’t ideal either. Still a few markets to settle, but looking like a small loser [on the draft] right now.”
The biggest long-shot in the top 10, however, happened when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up from No. 9 with the Cleveland Browns to take LSU CB Mansoor Delane at No. 6. Delane closed as a 100-1 long-shot to go No. 6, as there had been very little indication that the Cleveland Browns — slated to pick at No. 6 — had any interest. Such is the difficulty of betting the NFL Draft.
The 2026 NFL Draft is also a strong one for wide receiver, and the over/under in Round 1 was set at 5.5, with juice to the over. The Jets traded back into Round 1 to take Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. at No. 30, but he was the fifth — and final — wideout taken in the first round. The under ended up cashing for total Round 1 wide receivers, as Washington WR Denzel Boston is still on the board.
Here are the closing odds for every pick in the top 10 at BetMGM:
6. Kansas City Chiefs (via CLE): CB Mansoor Delane (100-1)
9. Cleveland Browns (via KC): OT Spencer Fano (+700)