The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is set for Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET, and this year's event carries historic weight. With proposed lottery reform—including a new 3-2-1 system—potentially taking effect next season, the current format could be the last of its kind. That means no draft floor, and every bounce of the ping pong ball matters more than ever.
Take the Washington Wizards, who finished with the league's worst record at 17-65. Under the current rules, the worst they can fall is to the No. 5 pick. But under the proposed changes, they'd be in a "relegation" zone and could drop all the way to No. 12. That's a massive swing for a franchise in the middle of a rebuild.
This draft class is loaded at the top, with BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Kansas' Darryn Peterson, Duke's Cameron Boozer, and North Carolina's Caleb Wilson all expected to hear their names called early. For teams tanking or trading for position, landing the No. 1 pick could define their next decade.
The Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets all have equal 14% odds of securing the top spot. Right behind them, the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings sit at 11.5% after tying for the fourth-worst record. The New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks tied for the seventh-worst record, but the Pelicans don't control their own pick—they traded it away last summer in a deal centered on Derik Queen.
The Atlanta Hawks are in an interesting position: they have two chances to land a top pick, owning the Pelicans' selection and holding swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Clippers owe their first-rounder to the Oklahoma City Thunder regardless, though they could still pick as high as No. 5 or No. 6. The Pacers also have a top-four protected pick headed to Los Angeles from the Ivica Zubac trade deadline deal. If that pick lands outside the top four, it goes to the Clippers this year. If not, it becomes an unprotected first-rounder in 2031.
Here are the official odds for each team heading into Sunday's lottery:
- Washington Wizards: 14% (worst record)
- Indiana Pacers: 14% (second-worst record)
- Brooklyn Nets: 14%
- Utah Jazz: 11.5%
- Sacramento Kings: 11.5%
- New Orleans Pelicans: (pick traded)
- Dallas Mavericks: (tied for seventh-worst)
- Atlanta Hawks: (two picks via Pelicans and Bucks swap)
- Los Angeles Clippers: (pick owed to Thunder)
Every team will be watching closely as the ping pong balls drop. For some, it's the final piece of a long rebuild. For others, it's a chance to add a franchise cornerstone. Either way, Sunday's lottery will set the stage for one of the most anticipated drafts in years.